Welcome! My name is Emanuele Bevacqua. I work as a Research Scientist at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ (Germany). Trained as a Physicist at the University of Calabria (Italy) with a curriculum in Astrophysics and Geophysics, I earned my PhD in Physics/Climate Science at GEOMAR (Germany) and Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz (Austria). Later, I worked as a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the University of Reading (UK).

I study the impact of past and future climate change on extreme events by focusing on compound events, i.e. combinations of multiple climatic drivers and/or hazards that cause societal or environmental impacts. For example, I study long-lasting precipitation events caused by consecutive stormscompound flooding happening in low-lying coastal areas due to co-occurring precipitation and sea level extremes, and meteorological droughts in combination with heatwaves. I employ climate models, outputs from hydrological models, and statistical tools to understand the physical mechanisms driving these extreme events and associated future changes, with a focus on uncertainties. I am interested in climate model evaluation, multivariate statistics (copulas and pair-copula constructions), statistical downscaling, regional climate modelling, and storylines.

Please, visit this page for a complete list of publications.

Hurricane Harvey brings devastation to Texas: By the numbers - ABC News


Jan 2022 A new paper on projections of concurrent hot and dry events has been accepted for publication in Nature Climate change. The conclusions have consequences for the assessment of a wide range of impactuful compound events. Stay tuned!
Dec 2021 The recent talk that I gave at AGU 2021 on guidelines for studying compound events is freely available online.
Oct 2021 A new paper was published in Earth’s Future. Through a community effort, we identify guidelines for studying compound events.
Oct 2021 Workshop: “Large ensemble simulations for compound event research”. Organised by myself with Aglaé Jézéquel‬, Mathiue Vrac, and Pascal Yiou, and funded by the DAMOCLES COST action.
Jun 2021 I have been nominated co-leader of the Working Group 4 (“New statistical approaches for model development and evaluation”) of the COST Action “DAMOCLES” (CA17109).
Jun 2021 Given the severe impacts caused by compound events, it is important to move towards a compound-event-oriented climate model evaluation. In this new work, we develop a framework to disentangle the underlying multivariate biases of impact indicators.
Mar 2021 In a new paper, we find that under a 2.0 °C global warming, the well-known intensification of wintertime total precipitation extremes (e.g., by 4%) will cause a disproportionate increase in the spatial footprint/extent of precipitation extremes (by about 100%).
Nov 2020 A new paper published in Communications Earth & Environment on compound flooding projections at the global scale.
Nov 2020 Workshop: “Bottom-up identification of key elements of compound events”. Organised by myself with the members of the DAMOCLES COST action.
Oct 2020 I presented our global analysis of compound flooding (paper) within the Risk-KAN Webinar series. The talk is available here.
Jun 2020 A new review paper published in Nature Reviews Earth & Environment: “A typology of compound weather and climate events”.
Sep 2020 New manuscript published Environmental Research Letters. We analyse present and future precipitation extremes from cyclone clustering.
May 2020 New paper accepted for publication in NHESS: “The role of using precipitation or river discharge data when assessing global coastal compound flooding”.
April 2020 New paper online: “Global projections of compound coastal meteorological extremes”.
Mar 2020 New paper accepted for publication in Environmental Research Letters: “Conditional and residual trends of singular hot days in Europe”
2 Mar 2020 Interview about the current anomalous stormy season in France and future changes in precipitation and storm surge extremes. French science magazine Sciences et Avenir.
17 -21 Feb 2020 Supervisor of a team project for master students at the University of Reading. We analysed “Present and future changes in tropical cyclone translation speeds”.
2 Dec 2019 New blog post on compound flooding and its future changes published in the meteorology blog of the University of Reading.
Nov 2019 2nd general assembly of the DAMOCLES COST action in Tallinn. We have a lot of exciting work planned for the coming months. Moreover, next year, I will become co-leader of Working Group 4, which focusses on statistical modelling of compound events.
21 Oct – 1 Nov 2019  Some of my past and ongoing work on compound events will be presented next week in Nanjing in a summer school of the “Institute of Advanced Studies”, organized by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP).
3 Oct 2019 Invited lecture on “Physical processes behind compound flooding” at the Training School on Statistical Modeling of Compound Events, Lake Como, Italy
23 Sep – 4 Oct 2019 Supervisor of a research project carried out by a group of PhD students and early postdocs at the Training School on Statistical Modeling of Compound Events, Lake Como, Italy
Sep 2019 Many media have reported on our Science Advances work on present and future compound flooding in Europe, including the BBC. Unfortunately, many oversimplifications on our conclusions were done by some media, and sometimes the message was communicated wrongly. Please, read the full article for clear information on the topic.
18 Sep 2019 A new graphic of compound flooding has appeared today on the BBC. It was used to discuss our new paper on compound flooding.
18 Sep 2019 Paper on present and future compound flooding in Europe published in Science Advances.
29 Aug 2019 Paper on changes in long hot and dry periods in Europe published in Environmental research letter.
29 Jul 2019 The Wikipedia user RCraig09 added my “circular warming stripes” (inspired by the warming stripes of Ed Hawkins) to the Wikipedia page of the warming stripes.